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New Yorkers will learn who will be their new city leader this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and protects the country's largest city at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a mayoral election that has pitted two very different Democrats against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter showdown, marked by alleged racism and Islamophobia, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have major implications for how the Democratic party performs in next year's congressional races.

The Rising Progressive

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the backing of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has campaigned on a agenda of economic justice and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has led Cuomo by significant margins in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who resigned as the state's leader in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about Mamdani, who is Muslim. Two weeks ago, the independent was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent freeing a convicts.

It's been a particularly ugly conclusion to an election that could be key to the path that the party, struggling in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, adopts in the near future.

Broader Consequences

Should Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be forced to reckon with a message that has appealed to voters' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the political elite. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's progressive proposals about affordability, given the newcomer has created an enthusiasm within the Democratic ranks arguably not seen since the Vermont senator campaigned for the White House eight years ago.

Conversely, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the June primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could reinforce the party's existing approach of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of Mamdani's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the center – even as surveys show the present version of the party is deeply unpopular nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in New York appear to favor the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been evident during the race. Mamdani's snappy videos on digital platforms, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has attracted an force of more than 50,000 volunteers, many of them young or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

Following extensive launching various attacks at his opponent to see what might stick, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has called his rival, who was born in Uganda to Indian parents, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo laughed along and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said the candidate would “cheer” another terrorist attack.

Campaign Dynamics

The line of attack mirrors much of what the former president, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who contributed to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to elect Cuomo elected, as other influential figures have pressured the Republican candidate to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of 150 state legislators, started his campaign for mayor in last year, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

The former governor, by comparison, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who seemingly held every edge. The classic establishment figure, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as New York governor in over a decade ago, seventeen years after his parent, the former governor, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was elected to the New York state assembly in recently, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than Cuomo’s dire warnings about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, the candidate has encountered difficulties in recent days, after footage emerged appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the IDF were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the nation is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained sympathy and support, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed Cuomo’s terrorism comments in an heartfelt recording. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many local Muslims had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our city. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must set aside our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd